War of Words: Equitable use versus Egypt’s Use

War of Words: Equitable use versus Egypt’s Use

Two US allies, Egypt and Ethiopia, are in early stages of diplomatic and water war due to the Blue Nile.

In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, the Ethiopian government announced that it intended to build The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). After it had squeezed money from every Ethiopian, the government started the construction in 2011. It is estimated that the project will cost about $5 billion, with a hope that it will generate 6,000 megawatts and bring annual revenue of $1 billion. Experts estimate that filling of the dam could take several years.

For thousands of years the Nile has been used, exclusively, by Sudan and Egypt. These two countries codified their exclusive rights in the 1929 and the 1959 colonial treaties. Ethiopia’s need were never considered.

According to UN Watercourses Convention, a sovereign country has a right to use international water in her territory in equitable and reasonable manner, but also has a reciprocal obligation not to deprive other Watercourse states of their respective rights in this regard.

While Egypt and Sudan were in turmoil or were dealing with internal issues, Ethiopia quietly completed about 70% of GERD. Even though Egypt’s leadership has expressed their views that their country will not accept a millimeter decrease of the waters of the Blue Nile, [1] they are trying to create an impression that they attempted to negotiate with Ethiopia. When the trilateral negotiations in Cairo and Addis Ababa did not yield fruits Egypt wished for, Egypt requested the US to be a mediator. A bona fide Ethiopia consented, hoping the US will enter as an honest broker. When Ethiopia asked the- February 27–28 meeting in Washington, DC, to be postponed, the US Treasury Department issued a warning.[2]Ethiopians view the stand of the US not only as being unfair, but also as a violation of international law. This stand of Ethiopia has got congressional attention. [3]

For a country with about 57% coverage of electricity, the Dam is essential to Ethiopia. If it is the policy of the US government and the World Bank that Ethiopia continues seeking food aid, developmental assistance, and be in civil strife and economic instability, then they should be on Egypt’s side. It is well-known that Egypt played a key role in the Middle East Peace Process. But from the Korean War to the war against terror, Ethiopia has also been a US ally. It has been a good friend of Israel too.

During spring and summer — due to Covid- 19, the killing of Floyid and the Black Lives Matter Movement- the US has issued only twits on the issue because it focused more on its domestic economic and social matters and has left Egypt on its own.

In the mean time, Egypt intensified the diplomatic war by lodging a complaint with the UN security, twisting the hands of the Arab League to issue a warning and by sending its chief diplomat to the capitals of every powerful European nation.

Ethiopia withdrew from the US- mediated talks, took the issue to African Union and started to fill the dam. Ethiopia understands the repercussions of saying “NO” to Egypt and to the US. As predicted by many analyst, the United States suspended some aid to Ethiopia because Ethiopia withdrew from the US- mediated talks. “It was an unusual example of Mr. Trump’s direct intervention on an issue in Africa, a continent he hasn’t visited as president and rarely mentions publicly”. [4]

But in the post-covid era, the US might not be the only country deciding about world order. In this new international saga, Ethiopia’s new ally China might have a skin in the game, too. Its banks have loaned Ethiopia billions of dollars and Chinese companies have won contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars to build the turbines and to perform various civil and structural works.

All things considered, this issue is going to explode and create a mini international crisis. I believe that, instead of pressuring and bullying Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan first need to understand that Ethiopia stepped up her game, and the Nile is now the subject of equitable use. Then, they have to renegotiate with Ethiopia and come back to the negotiation table with a consideration that takes into account the stage of the GERD and the needs of Ethiopia. Ethiopia also needs to understand that it could not decrease Sudan’s and Egypt’s water in such a way that it will cause existential threat for them. It should also employ the best international experts to monitor the safe operation of the dam.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia should not be a party to a deal that will take away her right to Equitable and Reasonable use. Even though Egypt has a lot of allies, long hands, experience, etc, it might not go to war with Ethiopia, but might try to destabilize the country by arming and otherwise supporting separatist groups, continue the aggressive public diplomacy and might take her case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

The US government better be served if it reverses the suspension because it is “misguided, shortsighted, and will undermine Washington’s relations and influence in one of Africa’s most significant states “. [5]

If negotiations fail, it is not the media, the ICJ is the venue to settle such claims. There are precedence cases that could give guidance in this case. One of them is the Gabčíkovo-Nagymaros Project (Hungary v. Slovakia), where the question of breach of contract, water rights and environmental issues were raised. In this case, Hungary pulled out of a deal it had signed with Czechoslovakia to build the Gabčíkovo-Nagymaros Project, and then Slovakia unilaterally changed the course of Danube and dammed it. However, the ICJ did not order change of course of the project but ordered the two countries to “re-establish co-operative administration of what remains of the Project”. Hungary v Slovakia 1997 icj 7. [6] Unless you want to go unnecessary war, this case and other rulings also show that equitable use is a win-win situation.

Therefore, I advise Egypt to stop the campaign against Ethiopia, stop the war of words and bickering, but, instead, continue the mediation. And if mediation fails, the parties need to take their case to ICJ. In ICJ everyone will win her right to equitable and reasonable use.

[1]https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/16/egypt-ethiopia-gerd-talks-renaissance-dam-accord/, http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/364504.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3fK3nnDxr65EWNcMkcaYuGCnruqxcKZrdXQaa68117RdUz8gWZsqGq640. Retrieved March 4, 2020.

[2]https://home.treasury.gov/news/secretary-statements-remarks/statement-by-the-secretary-of-the-treasury-on-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam. Retrieved on March 4, 2020.

[3]Nevada’s Congressman Steven Horsford, for standing for a just, equitable, balanced use of Ethiopia’s, youtube, visited March 4, 2020.

[4]“U.S. Cuts Aid to Ethiopia Amid Nile Dam Dispute”, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/world/us-aid-ethiopia-dam.html, Retrieved September 16, 2020.

[5] “Ethiopia: U.S. Aid Suspension to Put Pressure On Ethiopia Regarding GERD “Makes No Sense” Says Ambassador Cohen.”, https://allafrica.com/stories/202009120360.html, RETRIVED September 16, 2020.

[6]https://www.icj-cij.org/en/case/92/judgments. Retrieved March 4, 2020.

By Fitsum Achamyeleh Alemu, an attorney with practice in DC and Virginia.